Crypto Guide

Bitcoin worth rally to $19.5K prompts analysts to discover the place BTC worth may go subsequent

After hitting a yearly excessive of $19,501 on January 13, bitcoin (BTC), the place is it going subsequent?

Bitcoin is presently witnessing bullish momentum following a robust rally within the crypto market following a positively perceived Client Value Index (CPI) report.

The latest rally in bitcoin is producing elevated quantity ranges and better social engagement as as to whether the value is in a breakout of bearish mode.

Is The Bitcoin Bear Market Over?

Whereas the market continues to be technically in a bear market over the previous week, investor sentiment is enhancing. Based on the Concern and Greed Index, a crypto-specific metric that measures sentiment utilizing 5 weighted sources, investor sentiment concerning the market reached a month-to-month excessive.

Bitcoin Concern and Greed Index. Supply:

Bitcoin worth is now approaching the psychologically vital $20,000 stage and lots of analysts and merchants are issuing their views on the place BTC worth might head subsequent.

Let’s discover a few of these approaches.

Bitcoin buying and selling quantity stays a priority

The bitcoin worth has but to recuperate from its pre-FTX ranges, however rose above $19,501 on January 13 for the primary time since November 8, 2022. Regardless of the power of the latest rally, some analysts consider that BTC worth wants to succeed in $21,000 first. The present bullish development could be sustained.

Based on Glassnode evaluation,

“A brand new bullish development that started on January 1st introduced bitcoin to the $18.6 – $18.9k stage, but a cross over to $19k is anticipated to say a brand new buying and selling channel round $19-$21k. Resistance is anticipated round these ranges as bitcoin faces a medium-term downtrend. If the value fails to beat the development line, we anticipate a retracement in the direction of the $16-$17k space. Huh.

BTC worth versus quantity. Supply: Glassnode

The shortage of buying and selling quantity close to $18,000 displays the weak spot within the present on-chain and centralized alternate (CEX) exercise. Essentially the most quantity and total exercise appears to be across the $16,000 stage, suggesting that it is a extra stable flooring than the present worth vary. With low volumes hovering round $20,000, bitcoin’s rally might be capped at $20,000.

Is that this only a bear market rally?

Bitcoin nonetheless faces headwinds, together with large alternate layoffs amid a good macro economic system, Gemini and Genesis authorized points, and the potential institution of a US Home crypto-focused subcommittee.

Moreover, the Relative Energy Index (RSI) of bitcoin is presently displaying BTC as overbought. Based on the RSI evaluation, the value might witness a pointy decline with a draw back correction.

Bitcoin RSI. Supply: TradingView

Macro markets are additionally holding key resistance ranges. America Greenback Index (DXY) is at key help, which implies risk-on property like bitcoin might begin promoting if the index corrects. Bitcoin stays correlated with equities and the SPX mini futures index can be displaying indicators of a pullback.

TraderSZ explains under:

As TraderSZ urged that bitcoin buyers are taking earnings, BTC might discover it tough to succeed in larger ranges.

Historic Evaluation Factors to a New Bitcoin Backside

Bitcoin is presently buying and selling under its 200-week transferring common and based on impartial market analyst Rekt Capital, the bitcoin worth might have already hit its macro backside based on historic knowledge. Traditionally, the “dying cross” stage represents a low at $23,500.

Whereas merchants and technical evaluation will not be recognized to precisely predict how lengthy a bull or bear market might final, impartial market analyst Hornhauer cited historic knowledge from 2015 to foretell that bitcoin might enter a brand new bull market. How lengthy will it take to succeed in the all-time excessive?

The 2015 to 2017 bull market lasted 1064 days, which coincides with the 2018 to 2021 bull market, which lasted the identical variety of days. If merchants match the bear market that passed off between 2017 and 2018 and the present market in 2021, it should take 1,001 days for bitcoin to succeed in a brand new all-time excessive.

Regardless of the present circumstances and the power of the present worth breakout, bitcoin has confirmed many technical analysts improper prior to now. Threat-averse merchants might contemplate keeping track of elevated buying and selling quantity at larger costs, as as to whether or not bitcoin finally reverts to a bull market.